Technology changes things, sure. The question is, how do you recognize the early signs of change before they become catastrophic? I spend most of my days working on that question in academia, but what about our armed forces? Noah Shachtman regularly covers that issue in DefenseTech:

Like a lot of other sage observers, Naval Postgraduate School professor John Arquilla isn’t nuts about the idea of spending a ton on Cold War-style weapons systems when we’re supposed to be fighting terrorists and insurgents. But Arquilla is one of the first military analysts I’ve heard say that “the Pentagon’s big platforms [aren't] merely the wrong weapon systems to fight present and future wars, but [are] actually likely to bring defeat.”

The superiority of aircraft made huge battleships a liability just before World War II. The climax of Top Gun pretty much centered on the vulnerability of our all our ships — including aircraft carriers — to missile attack (BTW, those Exocet missiles now sport ranges as high as 180km). But these are just a few examples of the general problem. Of course, the Navy isn’t the only force with big, Cold-War iron. There’s more, including some good quotes at DefenseTech.

big iron, defense, defense spending, defensetech, future combat, future military, John Arquilla, military, Noah Shachtman, pentagon, war

Some time ago I pointed to John Robb’s discussion of the potential for the network to amplify the threat of violence from otherwise un-connected and un-organized individuals. Now Noah Shachtman at DefenseTech is writing about “open source insurgents.”

It used to be that a small group of ideological-driven guerilla leaders would spread information, tactics, training, and cash to their followers. No more. Internet-enabled insurgents with only the loosest of real-world connections can now share all of that freely online. These guys don’t have to like each other. They don’t have to agree with one another. They don’t even have to interact, really. All they have to do is post material to the Net.

Shachtman notes a Washington Post series on the matter (the final installment is a must read).

It’s worth noting that Shachtman also points to John Robb’s writings in this area and that he just returned from a stint in Iraq where he got to see some of this on the ground. What’s he got to say about it all?

In this way, the new Iraqi “non-insurgency” may be tougher to beat, ultimately, than the more ideological guerillas of the past. With such a diverse band sharing information so quickly, there’s no one “leader” or group of leaders to eliminate. In fact, taking out the most visible leaders might only make the Open Source network more efficient, by eliminating unnecessary nodes.

Scarily, we’re all starting to learn that Metcalfe’s Law and network effects apply to violence too. Shamefully, it seems everybody pretty much agrees with former British foreign secretary Robin Cook who noted “There were no international terrorists in Iraq until we went in.”

Photo: from leodecerca’s photostream at Flickr. Other Flickr finds: Eyes Wide Open exhibit, and camouflage.

tags: defensetech, guerillas, ideological, insurgents, iraq, john robb, metcalfe’s law, network effects, noah shachtman, open source, open source insurgency, open source violence, terrorism, terrorist, terrorists, world connections, world wide web