That headline might seem a little late among the folks reading this. But we’re all geeks, and if not geeks, then at least regular computer users. Regular computer users, however, are a minority. Worldwide, only around 500 million people have internet access, and fewer than 100 million people in the US have internet access at home. With populations of over 6 billion and 300 million respectively, there’s clearly a lot of growth potential.
Truth is, computers are the poor cousins to phones and television in terms of market penetration. In the US, Nielsen estimates there are over 275 million people with TVs in their homes today, and the CTIA says there are over 180 million mobile phone users.
The market opportunity is clear, but I think our notions of what a “computer” is have to change. Yes, computers have been through a lot of changes in 20 some odd years, but they’re still very much the same. Some might say that cars are basically the same as they were 100 years ago because they all mostly run around of four wheels and be happy with it. But transportation has seen tremendous change. Computers as we know them don’t own the internet any more than cars own the road or railroad or bike trails or skies.
Email was the killer app that made people interconnect their networks, the web was the killer app that got 90+ million users online already. And those users are the critical mass that pushes the development of real web applications — applications that are starting to beat desktop apps at their own game and doing things that desktop apps can’t.
With this flowering age of web applications, the age of internet connected information devices is coming. But we need something different from the computers we’ve become accustomed to. We need a device that is designed to serve the 90 million Americans who have cell phones, but don’t appear to have their own computers or home internet access. We need a device that replaces TVs as the leading entertainment and news medium. Because the information age will have arrived when there’s a dozen kiosks in every mall hawking internet tablets and we see them lined up at Best Buy with differentiated models for the kitchen, living room, the kids rooms, and for camping.
Background: this post is grew out of some discussion at TeleRead, NoSheep, and here at MaisonBisson.
tags: access, change, change computers, computer, computing, critical mass, desktop apps, email, geek, geeks, information age, information system, internet, internet access, internet connected, killer app, market opportunity, network, paradigm shift, penetration, portable computing, web, web applications
Posted August 4, 2005 by Casey Bisson
Categories: Technology. Tags: access, change, change computers, computer, computing, critical mass, desktop apps, email, geek, geeks, information age, information system, internet, internet access, internet connected, killer app, market opportunity, network, paradigm shift, penetration, portable computing, web, web applications.
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I read just this week that the U.S. ranks 16th in the world in terms of broadband use (don’t know if that’s total or per capita). A device like the Nokia 770 may well be more successful in Korea or Europe or other places higher on that broadband acceptance list.
[...] Go read the whole post. Then read Casey’s additional post, The Coming Information Age. I think this really digs into where computing hardware is going. It is always interesting as we try to predict the future, many ideas will be discussed, few will come to be. [...]
[...] To many, this may seem only natural. But let me emphasize the obvious: computers and computer networks now offer real value to those who don’t value technology. This is driving the success of social software. This is the coming of the information age. [...]
[...] I’ve been doing a lot of talking about the coming information age and how it depends on access technology that is as cheap and easy to use as cell phones (applications of it that are as appealing as people find their cell phones). But I’ve been slow to mention the MIT Media Lab’s One Laptop Per Child $100 laptop plan. [...]
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[...] The Pepper Pad, I believe, is the type of device we need to drive information services into the mainstream. …To drive internet access well beyond the 100 million US subscribers who have at-home internet access today and start approaching the nearly 200 million US subscribers who carry cell phones. That’s why I’m interested in their applications in libraries, and that’s why I’m looking at the demo unit above. [...]
[...] But these aren’t general purpose PCs, and they’re not trying to replace PCs. These are information age devices that deliver the network in places we generally don’t bring our [...]